1. The ongoing exodus of some foreign companies from Russia and the corresponding change in the ownership structure may lead to unexpected political consequences and reformat the arrangement of influence groups in power.
2. In particular, the largest American company International Paper (IP) announced that it was leaving the Russian market. In this case, its share in the Russian forestry company Ilim (50% of shares) the most likely buyers according to the law will be the co-founders and founders of the holding, brothers Zingarevich and Zakhar Smushkin, who will have the opportunity to purchase an IP package at a price below the market “due to special circumstances” .
3. Ilim is a strategically important company whose enterprises produce 75% of pulp, 20% of cardboard, 10% of paper of the total volume produced in Russia. The price of three pulp and paper mills, two corrugated cardboard factories, research institutes and logging structures (renting 1% of all forest lands in Russia) is estimated at 2-3 billion dollars. A change in the ownership structure and the transfer of IP shares will inevitably be accompanied by an audit, during which facts of corruption and non-business contacts with government officials may be revealed.
4. Historically, Dmitry Medvedev is associated with the Ilim group, who was one of its founders with a 20% share and, by his own admission, “accompanied the company’s projects until 1999,” when it turned into a billion-dollar holding. However, later Medvedev was noticed in lobbying the interests of the company, already holding high government positions: for example, with his support, Ilim managed to repel the raider attacks of Deripaska’s Bazel; in 2016, the State Duma rejected a bill on forest management reform, which directly violated interests of the Smushkins-Zingarevich, and in 2013, Prime Minister Medvedev personally opened new production lines at the enterprise “Ilima” in Irkutsk, etc.
5. With possible corruption facts related to Medvedev, the American company is highly likely to blackmail partners with the intention of getting a high price for its stake. And making the audit results public will deal a serious blow to Medvedev’s political reputation and electoral potential, who, judging by the overwhelming public criticism of him, has lost his administrative anti-PR shield.
6. Such prospects are associated with Medvedev’s sharp transition from a “moderate liberal within the framework of the rule of law” to a “hawk-patriot” with a high degree of hatred towards the West, which he demonstrates in his posts “in a language understandable to the people.” If, nevertheless, the IP, without agreeing with the Smushkins-Zingarevich, releases compromising evidence, Medvedev will be able to explain such a step as revenge for his principled anti-Western position.
“ВЧК ОГПУ”