As a result, the Kremlin began to discuss the option of preserving Kostin with an increase in the control of the FSB behind the bank. At the same time, Kulikov may be responsible for the initiative and unreasonable Faltstart. In this regard, the following scenarios of the development of events are seen:
1. Wino (10% probability)
Kulikov heads VTB. Hard cleaning of the Kostin team
Risk: Mass outflow of customers due to the reputation of the “burial ground Rusnano”
2. Compromise with security forces (45%)
The appointment of a neutral technocrat, Kostin goes “due to health reasons”, Vaino receives 1-2 deputy seats for his people with the status quo (30%) Kostin remains under the curator of the FSB
3. The bank receives an additional 500 billion rubles. state support
The question is postponed.
4. Hard scenario (15%) Nationalization of VTB with freezing large deposits.
Simultaneous arrests among the team of Kostin and lobbyists Vaino
Bank transfer for management VEB.rf
With all scenarios there will be the consequences for Kulikov and Weino
Kulikov: Even when resigned from Rusnano, VTB will not receive – his reputation was destroyed. The maximum is an honorary position in Rosgeology.
Vaino: will lose part of influence in AP. Grigorenko will strengthen the position as a curator of the financial block.
Kostin: will save the post, but will lose autonomy. All key decisions will be made by the Board of Directors with the participation of the FSB.
What is the end?
History showed that the banking system is on the verge of redistribution, and the AP of the Russian Federation is no longer omnipotent – even Wyno could not be sold out of his candidate. At the same time, VTB becomes a “bargaining” in the struggle between the clans.
The main loser is the economy: while the elites share the bank, its real problems (toxic loans, sanctions) remain unresolved.
The next step: the Central Bank in the coming weeks will announce the reorganization of VTB – and then it will become clear whose script won.
Well, yes.
And what about Chubais?
Chubais is a closed topic.
According to the source of the Cheka-OGPU, Putin considers the story with Chubais exhausted: the ex-head of Rusnano in exile, his connections in the Russian Federation are torn. The elites received a lesson and the necessary signal – which means that new criminal cases or public proceedings are not in the interests of the Kremlin – this will only divert attention from more important issues.
As the head of VTB “Warks” in the cart, the head of the AP of the Russian Federation
“ВЧК ОГПУ”
